I read somewhere that pro handicapper Wayne Allen Root's picks winners about 58% of the time. If you bet sports at a casino, you have to have a win rate of 52% to beat the house juice and break even. If you took Root's picks to one of the Leroy's sports books, at the end of the season you'd make 6% on your money. If this is what the pros make how can an amateur bettor expect to do any better?
Point spreads make game line bets similar to wagering on the flip of a coin. Most of the professional sports handicappers "know somebody" at every big game. Someone who knows who's hurt before the bookies get word. Someone who knows the grounds keepers that say the turf is sloppy. Someone who knows the referee is in big with bookies and is going to call unnecessary technicals. If you don't know "somebody" just make a guess - the less you know may actually help you.
During the football season I won a bet with my Las Vegas contortion. I won 48% of my college picks - good enough for the rest of them to buy me dinner at the Wynn steakhouse SW. I think the bill was $35,000, but it was worth it. I actually think I'm a pretty good football handicapper, but it's all an illusion. Most guys think they're pretty good at picking winners, but they're not. Each time someone tells you about the winner they picked they're hiding the three dogs that lost them most of their bankroll. A chimp could pick winners as well as you.
My monkey picked Kansas. I know nothing about college basketball other than it's basketball played by college kids. I entered a bracket with the folks in Vegas, with another dinner awarded to the winner. Most of the time, I was getting killed. I couldn't pick a winner to save my life (I had Indiana going to the Final Four). I expected to lose, I was just hoping the winner would pick a place I like. That all changed when Kansas beat North Carolina Saturday night.
If the Memphis beats Kansas, we will be going to Michael's at the South Point. But if the Jayhawks come in, I get to pick the place. If anyone has any suggestions, please don't hesitate to pass them along. John from coolvegasmap.com gave me the idea of hitting the Binions Steakhouse. I don't know how that would compare to SW, but I would really like to find out.
Go KU!